Note — Jun 02, 2019

AGI Has Been Delayed

Rodney Brookes mostly on self-driving cars, bold claims made left and right, and how they are being disproven quickly. He also highlights a bet he took with AI enthusiast and inventor Kai-Fu Lee but I’m including the article for the second quote below because it’s a useful frame for claims about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

Chris Urmson was the leader of Google’s self-driving car project, which became Waymo around the time he left, and is the CEO of a very well funded self-driving start up. He says “30 to 50 years”. Chris Urmson has been a leader in the autonomous car world since before it entered mainstream consciousness. He has lived and breathed autonomous vehicles for over ten years. No grumpy old professor is he. He is a doer and a striver. If he says it is hard then we know that it is hard. […]

If we were to have AGI, Artificial General Intelligence, with human level capabilities, then certainly it ought to be able to drive a car, just like a person, if not better. Now a self driving car does not need to have general human level intelligence, but a self driving car is certainly a lower bound on human level intelligence. Urmson, a strong proponent of self driving cars says 30 to 50 years.

So what does that say about predictions that AGI is just around the corner? And what does it say about it being an existential threat to humanity any time soon.