11 discoveries that changed my worldview ⊗ AI acceleration vs. precaution

11 discoveries that changed my worldview

Nate Hagens shares ten formative realizations that shaped his understanding of humanity’s relationship with energy, resources, and the biosphere. Starting from his Wall Street career, he traces his evolving comprehension of oil’s unique role—not as a simple commodity but as the foundation of modern civilization, with energy transformations underlying every economic transaction. He also talks about discovering that human desires operate on dopamine-driven feedback loops rather than actual satisfaction, that money represents claims on physical resources rather than wealth itself, and that technology accelerates resource extraction rather than creating new wealth.

His later insights connect evolutionary biology to current behaviour: humans function cooperatively at small scales but form what he calls a “Superorganism” at global scale, a system driven by energy throughput that rewards short-term power over long-term stability. Hagens also mentions the incredible biomass shift I’ve mentioned before: humans and livestock now outweigh wild land mammals 80 to 1, a 3 000-fold reversal from 10 000 years ago. Most of the podcast is a synthesis of ideas listeners will already have heard (still a useful listen), but I wanted to include it specifically because he identifies a disconnect between individual intention and collective outcome: “our collective intelligence can act in ways no one would, or very few people would consciously choose.” While most people remain “kind, cooperative, generous” in local contexts, the emergent structures of markets and nations operate with their own logic, often elevating those with “dark triad” personality traits to positions of influence and producing systemic results no individual would deliberately select. It’s on a different scale, but very similar to the Abilene paradox (I was surprised he didn’t mention it), where groups collectively decide on actions counter to most individuals’ preferences, with each person mistakenly believing their view contradicts the group’s.

His final insight—perhaps the “missing” eleventh discovery suggested by the title—opens to a less depressing future. He proposes that humanity may be undergoing “an evolutionary transition” or “rite of passage” at a species scale, “the painful process of becoming aware of ourselves as a planetary force.” He wonders if the current moment holds potential for transformation: moving from having “the powers of gods, but not the wisdom of what Bill Plotkin would call ecological adults,” toward “conscious membership in the long and I hope continuing story of life on earth.”

The heavy elements that make us carbon, calcium, iron could only be created in the unimaginable heat and pressure of dying Suns. So billions of years later, those same elements cycle through us combining, flowing, dispersing, and eventually returning again to the world, when we die. Realizing I was recycled star matter cracked open my sense of time and deep time. You start to realize that conscious life, you, me, all of us, is how the universe observes itself, which is kind of profound. […]

A single barrel of oil contains 1700 kilowatt hours worth of energy potential, which is the energy equivalent roughly five years of a human working yet sells for less than a dinner in New York City. Oil and coal and natural gas when combined with machines function as an army of half a trillion human workers strong, which we effectively pay pennies for. So I learned that we confused the price of energy with its value. […]

I used to believe technology created wealth and it took me decades to realize technology mostly just accelerates access to it. Real wealth doesn’t come from the stock market. It comes from the sun and soil and water, and living systems and natural resource accounts, the foundation that make everything else possible. Technology doesn’t create that wealth. It functions more like a straw to access it, and the straw gets bigger and wider over time.

AI acceleration vs. precaution

Elsewhere, AI is seen as a lever of supremacy. In Europe, it is — or should be — viewed as a means to serve the common good.”

Nathan Gardels shares summaries of a debate between Benjamin Bratton, director of the Antikythera project on planetary-scale computation, and Francesca Bria, Barcelona’s former chief technology and innovation officer. He also tacks on a third opinion, citing a recent piece by Jacques Attali. In his reading, Europe faces a dilemma as the US and China dominate AI development. The continent has produced strong regulations like GDPR and the AI Act, but owns just 4% of global cloud infrastructure and depends on American platforms subject to U.S. law.

Bratton argues that Europe’s “regulate first, build later” approach is backfiring, creating dependency rather than sovereignty (fyi, since Andreessen’s screed two years ago, “build” is becoming a dog whistle red light for me). He draws a parallel to how Europe killed its nuclear industry only to become reliant on Russian energy. The accelerationist view holds that Europe’s precautionary principle will leave it permanently behind, unable to compete with the massive investments flowing into AI research in America and China.

Bria counters that Europe’s regulatory approach reflects a different set of values—optimization for empowerment rather than extraction. She argues that Europe should build AI as public infrastructure serving democratic accountability, not shareholder profits or state surveillance. For his part, Jacques Attali frames this as Europe’s historical vocation: to think before transforming, to ensure progress remains human. While Gardels concludes that both positions hold merit, I’m firmly in the Bria/Attali camp. Check out the article if you want his whole conclusion.

Bria doesn’t hold back: “Many blame Europe’s digital paralysis on its critical intellectuals — those who push back against Silicon Valley accelerationism, crypto hyper-libertarianism and the rise of techno-authoritarianism. But this is misdirected. …The real choice facing Europe isn’t between criticism and construction but between authoritarian technological models or democratic alternatives.” […]

The difference isn’t capability but values and political imagination. Silicon Valley optimizes for extraction — how to capture maximum value from users. Europe optimizes for empowerment — how to distribute agency across society. These aren’t compatible goals, which is why importing Silicon Valley’s model would mean abandoning European democracy. […]

Rather than becoming marginalized, Bria envisions that “Europe’s constraints will become competitive advantages” if AI infrastructure “operates within planetary boundaries while serving democratic rather than extractive purposes. When data centers must run on clean electricity, when water consumption faces strict limits and when carbon pricing reflects true costs.”

Decelerationism

[Mish-mashed interlude] When I started on this issue I thought the piece The corpse of accelerationism by Benjamin Noys would lead. If you are deep in philosophy, can read “Derridean,” “Nietzschean” or “Heideggerian,” and instantly have a clear view of what that means, good on you and have a go, it seems like a good read but it was somewhat over my head, since I was unwilling to start digging around. Anyway, I’m putting it here because re-reading about accelerationism, I started wondering why “we” don’t use decelerationism instead of degrowth? People have so integrated the idea of growth and so many feel they are missing things they “need,” it seems like slowing down would be an easier (though largely similar underneath) sell than “having less,” which is what many hear when “degrowth” is mentioned. Almost everyone thinks things in their lives are moving too fast, so slower should be good, no?

That was my initial “insight,” which I quite like. But of course, the word and discourse already exists, and for roughly what I have in mind, but it seems to be used derogatorily by accells ¯\(ツ)/¯. I asked Perplexity a couple of questions on the use of the word. Not sure it’s interesting anymore, but a quick(ish) couple of rabbit holes to dive into if you like.

Also, just a few hours earlier I was having a chat with my friend Mitch and he was talking about Youtubers documenting “slow lives,” which might have influenced my brain lighting up at the thought of “decelerationism.” Two examples: The Art of Coffee: A Quiet Day in a Tokyo Cafe and A Slow Life in Tokyo: The Couple Who Live in a Library. Very Craig Mod’s Pizza Toast & Coffee: Kissa Būgen.

Futures, Fictions & Fabulations

• IFTF Ten-Year Forecast Urgent Futures Perspectives. “This year IFTF’s 2025 Ten-Year Forecast, Strategy in the Age of Chaos, is a package of eleven forecasts examining the futures that will likely reshape our lives in the next ten years: GLP-1 medications transforming health, our bodies and society, neuropolitics, the gamblification of everything, automated decision-making systems, and more.”
• SEEING THE UNSEEN Uncovering personal journeys in futures literacy. “This book holds a unique collection of 20 stories of people whose lives have been impacted by futures Seeing the Unseen: Uncovering Personal Journeys in Futures Literacy Seeing the Unseen: Uncovering personal journeys in futures literacy. They share their struggles, doubts, victories and insights.”
• AI in Strategic Foresight: Reshaping Anticipatory Governance. “AI is transforming strategic foresight, the field where experts explore plausible futures and develop strategies to help organizations, governments and others prepare for events to come. This paper from the World Economic Forum, in collaboration with the OECD, explores how AI is reshaping this field.”

Algorithms, Automations & Augmentations

• AI eats the world (again). Benedict Evans’ yearly presentation, updated this month with lots of new stuff. I might come back to it but in the mean time it’s a good read.
• Google boss says trillion-dollar AI investment boom has ‘elements of irrationality’. “Speaking exclusively to BBC News, Sundar Pichai said while the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) investment had been an "extraordinary moment," there was some "irrationality" in the current AI boom.”
• Jeff Bezos creates AI start-up where he will be co-chief executive. Le sigh. “Called Project Prometheus, the company is focusing on artificial intelligence for the engineering and manufacturing of computers, automobiles and spacecraft.”

Built, Biosphere & Breakthroughs

• Innovative paint cools homes and harvests fresh water from air. “In trials on the roof of the Sydney Nanoscience Hub, the coating captured dew more than 30% of the year, generating as much as 390 mL of water per square meter (roughly 13 fluid ounces per 10.8 square feet) daily.”
• This black fungus might be healing Chernobyl by drinking radiation. “The fungi contain melanin, which ‘absorbs radiation, which is then converted into usable energy, allowing it to grow in areas with intense radioactive exposure.’”
• Electric Boat’s 5,016 batteries drive maritime shift. “Uruguay’s grid is more than 92 percent renewable, with more than a third of its electricity generation coming from wind. Argentina’s grid is still dominated by natural gas, but is also high in hydropower, wind, and nuclear, which collectively account for about 42 percent of its generation.”

Asides

• Scientists find hidden antibiotic 100x stronger against deadly superbugs. “A team of scientists discovered a hidden antibiotic 100 times stronger than existing drugs against deadly superbugs like MRSA. The molecule had been overlooked for decades in a familiar bacterium. It shows no signs of resistance so far, offering hope in the fight against drug-resistant infections and paving the way for new approaches to antibiotic discovery.”
• First revealed in spy photos, a Bronze Age city emerges from the steppe. “University College of London archaeologist Miljana Radivojevic and her colleagues recently mapped the site with drones and geophysical surveys (like ground-penetrating radar, for example), tracing the layout of a 140-hectare city on the steppe in what’s now Kazakhstan. The Bronze Age city once boasted rows of houses built on earthworks, a large central building, and a neighborhood of workshops where artisans smelted and cast bronze.”
• Picture of health: going to art galleries can improve wellbeing, study reveals. “Viewing original works of art can relieve stress, cut heart disease risk and boost immune system, first study of its kind finds”