The lost art of thinking historically ⊗ How climate broke reality ⊗ Does the Bitter Lesson have limits?

The lost art of thinking historically

Francis Gavin argues that what we urgently need is a historical sensibility—a way of thinking that embraces uncertainty, context, and the complexity of human experience rather than seeking simple, certain answers. This sensibility recognises history as a rich tapestry of interwoven events shaped by multiple causes and unintended consequences, rather than a straightforward narrative with clear heroes or villains. Thinking historically means asking deeper, more probing questions that resist easy conclusions and appreciate the unpredictable and “wacky” nature of the past. Rather than offering neat lessons, history provides a vast reservoir of human experience that sharpens our intellectual humility, curiosity and empathy, equipping us to engage thoughtfully with the challenges of an uncertain future.

In one phrase; the discipline of history today is largely a preservation method, instead of a living practice used as a lens to interpret and enact the present and orient futures. I use “futures thinking” to describe this newsletter. Thus a call to consider consequences and trajectories, while Gavin “reminds us that history is not a set of lessons to be applied, but a vast reservoir of human experience to be explored.”

The story of the Umbrella Man reveals our deep-seated human desire to make sense of a complex universe through tidy, airtight explanations. We crave certainty, especially in the face of tragedy, and are quick to weave disparate facts into a coherent, and often sinister, narrative. We see a man with an umbrella on a sunny day and assume conspiracy, because the alternative — that the world is a stage for random, idiosyncratic and often meaningless acts — is far more unsettling. […]

What we have lost, and what we desperately need to reclaim, is a different mode of cognition, a historical sensibility. This is not about memorizing dates and facts. It is, as the historian Gordon S. Wood describes it, a “different consciousness,” a way of understanding that profoundly influences how we see the world. It is a temperament that is comfortable with uncertainty, sensitive to context and aware of the powerful, often unpredictable rhythms of the past. To cultivate this sensibility is to acquire the intellectual virtues of modesty, curiosity and empathy — an antidote to the hubris of rigid, monocausal thinking. […]

Ultimately, thinking historically is about asking better, more probing questions. It is a disciplined curiosity that fosters an appreciation for the complex interplay of individual agency, structural forces and pure chance. Instead of offering easy answers, it provides the intellectual equipment to engage with hard questions, a skill indispensable for navigating a future that will surely be as unpredictable as the past.

How climate broke reality

We all gravitate towards convenience. For some people, if “truth” is in the way of living a convenient life, or collecting convenient profits, or punishing convenient enemies, then truth itself has to go.

ADH proposes that climate change has fractured our shared sense of reality, that denial and conspiracy theories prevent meaningful action and deepen societal anxiety. He suggests that many people secretly understand the climate crisis but choose convenient falsehoods over uncomfortable truths, fuelling widespread reality denial. To restore collective trust and hope, we must move beyond minimal climate targets and inspire belief in the possibility of truly restoring the Earth’s atmosphere. An essential shift not only to address environmental collapse but also to heal the broader cultural and political fractures caused by climate anxiety and misinformation.

The cause and effect is something I hadn’t considered, but I’ve often said that a lot of people seem to just not want to think about things. Everything happens so much that, consciously or unconsciously, they stick to the status quo and ignore “all the things.” If people insist on going back in time, then going back to a restored Earth would be a lot more productive than back to the 50s.

And we have to tell a story that goes beyond the world’s current limp climate targets, beyond merely decarbonizing and halting warming at 1.5-2°C. Managed decline and blunted disaster inspire no one, and I think everyone understands, deep down, that this is what’s being proposed. We need to start telling people that an actual restoration of the holocene atmosphere is possible, and that they can be a part of it. […]

But for me, that “inconvenient truth” phrase still has a lot of explanatory power. It’s not “an important truth” or “a necessary truth” or “a useful truth.” No, the most fundamental thing about climate change is that it’s inconvenient, frustrating, shitty. Even if you believe, as I do, that fixing climate change is an opportunity to fix many other problems in our society, it’s still inconvenient that the chemistry worked out this way. […]

How much does climate anxiety fuel the anxiety behind the so-called ‘masculinity crisis’? How much are we driven to addictive screens because the weather is getting worse, and we have reason to be afraid of the sky? How much have we lost faith in journalism because it seems to struggle to tackle the biggest story on the planet? The entanglements are endless, once you start looking for them.

§ Does the Bitter Lesson have limits? “[Donna Haraway’s ] list of the four major blows to the human ego: The Copernican Revolution, which allowed us to realize we weren’t the center of the universe. Darwinian thought, which allowed us to realize we weren’t separate from animals. Freud’s ideas of the unconscious, which allowed us to realize that we weren’t in full control of our selves. Cyborgs, robots, and automatons, which allowed us to realize that non-humans could do the work of humans.”

§ Why 95% of AI commentary fails. Jon Evans criticises the widespread misreporting of MIT NANDA’s “95% of AI projects fail” paper, pointing out the paper actually finds 95% of highly customised internal pilot projects don’t scale, while standard LLM chatbots and vendor partnerships often succeed. He urges readers to check primary sources and to use frontier LLMs (e.g. GPT‑5, Claude, Gemini) to summarise papers and flag errors in news stories.“No, it will almost certainly not hallucinate. (Hallucinations usually come from models ‘misremembering' their pretraining; here, the paper and report will be in their context window, which they’re nowadays very good at recalling.) And the sad reality is that even in the unlikely event it does … I am confident it will do so much less than, say, modern human reporters.” Ouch!

Futures, Fictions & Fabulations

• Beyond Dystopia: Designing futures you can live in with Keely Adler & Caitlin Keeley, RADAR. “In this conversation, Keely Adler (Head of Practice) and Caitlin Keeley (Head of Imagination) unpack how RADAR prototypes futures in public—through research cycles, rituals, grants, and cultural artifacts, so communities can see themselves in what’s next. We get into “mundane futures,” love as infrastructure, and what it takes to cross the yearning gap from longing to action.”
• Unscripted: Candid conversations about who gets to imagine the future. “We all have a role to play in creating a future where health is not a privilege but a right—and just as importantly, in imagining what that future looks like. When more people have the time and resources to imagine, we unlock the collective wisdom needed to create the world we all want.”
• Exploring socio-technical futures of work: Report of the Millennium Project session at the Futures of Technologies Conference 2025. “To delve deeper into the four radical narratives developed within T-winning Spaces 2035 project and ideate how to make these narratives more preferred.”

Algorithms, Automations & Augmentations

• What kind of environmental impacts are AI companies disclosing? (And can we compare them?) ◎ Rising AI demand is outpacing energy supply worldwide. ◎ The real story on AI water usage at data centers.
• Albania appoints an AI as Government Official. “Announced this week by Edi Rama, Albania's prime minster, Diella — which also serves as the avatar for e-Albania, the country's government services portal — will oversee public procurement, the process by which governments and state-owned companies buy, via taxpayer dollars, everything from office supplies to concrete for roadwork.”

Built, Biosphere & Breakthroughs

• One city’s race to ‘Solarize everything we possibly can’. Wine, a great tramway network, and now this! “Bordeaux is quickly transforming itself into France’s top solar-powered city, banking on innovations like transparent panels that preserve its historic architecture.”
• The modern makeover of Assam’s centuries-old stilt houses. “Architects and communities are collaborating to design flood-resilient housing fit for the challenges low-lying regions are facing around the world.”
• Zinc roofs give Paris its signature look. But they are a nightmare in heat. “As climate change helps fuel more severe heat waves, the city is struggling between maintaining its architectural heritage and keeping apartments livable.”

Asides

• Connect with nature: Pocket Scion by Instruō & Modern Biology. Woah! “Pocket Scion is a handheld device that transforms the bioelectrical signals of plants, fungi, and even human touch into sound. Developed by Glasgow-based makers Instruō in collaboration with Vancouver artist Tarun Nayar @ModernBiology101 this pocket-sized, battery-powered instrument makes biodata sonification accessible to everyone.”
• Warsaw opens metro station ‘express’ library to get commuters off their phones. “An ‘express’ library has opened in a new metro station in Warsaw, aiming to provide an appealing cultural space to encourage residents and commuters to forgo smartphones in favour of books and, thanks to fresh herbs growing in a vertical garden, a dash of subterranean greenery too.”
• Japan sets new record with nearly 100,000 people aged over 100. “Setting a new record for the 55th year in a row, the number of centenarians in Japan was 99,763 as of September, the health ministry said on Friday. Of that total, women accounted for an overwhelming 88%.”
• The 2025 Audubon Photography Awards emphasize epic and endangered migrations. “In so-called ‘granary trees,’ acorn woodpeckers drill remarkable pegboard-like patterns in which they store thousands upon thousands of acorns for food over the winter.”