Fortnite as Metaverse. Design From Homescreen to City. Supposedly ‘Fair’ Algorithms. German Ruling. Plummeting Insects.

Fortnite Is the Future, Maybe Not for the Reasons You Think

Fascinating dive into the world of Fortnite, first debunking four hypes about the game, then taking stock of Epic and Fortnite’s situation and prospectives going forward. Already worth a read for that but it really gets interesting when Ball starts looking at the use of the game as a public square, the time spent there, and how it could be / is used as a platform. He then goes into what Epic founder Tim Sweeney is planning for the cloud, a marketplace, and his longtime obsession with the “Metaverse.“ Think something like Ernest Cline’s Ready Player One and a platform vision which might face off with Zuckerberg’s similar(ish) ideas for Oculus. (Also, the Unreal engine is very aptly named, these demos are a bit mindblowing.)

To this end, Fortnite likely represents the largest persistent media event in human history. As of today, the game has likely had more than six consecutive months with at least one million concurrent active users – all of whom are participating in a largely shared and consistent experience that spanned multiple “seasons”, storylines, and events. […]

Fortnite wasn’t designed to be a Second Life-style experience, or even a digital “third place“; it became one organically. What’s more, it is drastically out-monetizing dedicated social squares such as Facebook, Snapchat and Instagram – even combined. […]

[T]he engine is increasingly used in online or AR-enhanced virtual tours, in architectural modeling, and so on. The company newest frontier is feature-film grade rendering – in its game engine. […]

Epic has also built up another great and particularly hard to establish advantage: some 200MM+ registered user accounts. Each of these accounts is equipped with individual and directly reachable email addresses, in many cases a clear social graph, as well as dual factor authentication via cell phone numbers, and, often, credit cards. […]

In its fullest form, the Metaverse experience would span most, if not all virtual words, be foundational to real-world AR experiences and interactions, and would serve as an equivalent “digital” reality where all “physical” humans would simultaneously co-exist. […]

“If you look at why people are paid to do things, it’s because they’re creating a good or delivering a service that’s valuable to somebody, there’s just as much potential for that in these virtual environments as there is in the real world. If, by playing a game or doing something in a virtual world, you’re making someone else’s life better, then you can be paid for that.”

Note: Originally linked to https://redef.com/original/fortnite-is-the-future-but-probably-not-for-the-reasons-you-think.

German Regulators Just Outlawed Facebook’s Whole Ad Business

Remains to be seen how much of this survives appeals but fantastic comprehension and clear sightedness of the issues in this ruling.

“The only choice the user has is either to accept the comprehensive combination of data or to refrain from using the social network. In such a difficult situation the user’s choice cannot be referred to as voluntary consent.” […]

“They are no longer able to control how their personal data are used. They cannot perceive which data from which sources are combined for which purposes with data from Facebook accounts and used e.g. for creating user profiles,” the FAQ on the ruling reads. That combining of data gives it a “significance the user cannot foresee.”

No.67 Asides

• 🧵 by Ramez Naam. Intriguing ideas in there: “A twitter thread of unpopular opinions about climate policy generally, and the #GreenNewDeal specifically. 1/“
  “The most effective climate policy of all time, for my mind, is Germany’s early subsidy for solar and wind. These policies had impact not because of the emissions avoided in Germany (relatively small), but because they made solar and wind cheaper for the world.”
• Why Amazon buying eero feels so disappointing. “We all feel trapped — or maybe captured — by the various ecosystems we live in. We all use excellent products every day made by behemoth companies, but increasingly only made by those companies. iPhone or Android, Chrome or Safari, Surface or Mac, Windows or Chrome OS, and even Facebook or Twitter: all, in one way or another, come from one of the big guys.”
• Capitalism’s New Clothes. Evgeny Morozov 16,500-word review of Zuboff’s surveillance capitalism. Didn’t get through the whole thing this time around but quite good so far.
• Forget Everything You Know about 3-D Printing — the “Replicator” Is Here. “Researchers have unveiled a 3D printer that creates an entire object at once, rather than building it layer by layer as typical additive-manufacturing devices do”. Works somewhat like a reverse CT scan.
• Landmark Australian ruling rejects coal mine over global warming.
  “It is the first time a new coal mine has been rejected in Australia, the world’s leading coal exporter, because of the potential contribution to global warming.”
• Met Office: global warming could exceed 1.5C within five years.
  “Global warming could temporarily hit 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for the first time between now and 2023, according to a long-term forecast by the Met Office.”
• Brick by LEGO brick, teen builds his own prosthetic arm
• Neanderthal Spears Threw Pretty Well

Plummeting Insect Numbers ‘Threaten Collapse of Nature’

😰🦟 Some serious abyss gazing going on when you think through the implications and consider what the odds are that our governments will take the required actions. (Nevermind the fact that, like many climate changes measures, they might actually be understating reality.)

More than 40% of insect species are declining and a third are endangered, the analysis found. The rate of extinction is eight times faster than that of mammals, birds and reptiles. The total mass of insects is falling by a precipitous 2.5% a year, according to the best data available, suggesting they could vanish within a century. […]

“When you consider 80% of biomass of insects has disappeared in 25-30 years, it is a big concern.”

Supposedly ‘Fair’ Algorithms Can Perpetuate Discrimination

Joi Ito reviews some of the history of redlining in the US and makes a parallel between the statistics of “actuarial fairness” and our contemporary use of data by AIs, arguing that the same claims “that their job was purely technical and that it didn’t involve moral judgments” mirror what the Googles and Facebooks are doing today.

They argued that they were just doing their jobs. Second-order effects on society were really not their problem or their business. […]

Thus began the contentious career of the notion of “actuarial fairness,” an idea that would spread in time far beyond the insurance industry into policing and paroling, education, and eventually AI, igniting fierce debates along the way over the push by our increasingly market-oriented society to define fairness in statistical and individualistic terms rather than relying on the morals and community standards used historically. […]

So while redlining for insurance is not legal, when Amazon decides to provide Amazon Prime free same-day shipping to its “best” customers, it’s effectively redlining—reinforcing the unfairness of the past in new and increasingly algorithmic ways. […]

We must create a system that requires long-term public accountability and understandability of the effects on society of policies developed using machines. The system should help us understand, rather than obscure, the impact of algorithms on society. We must provide a mechanism for civil society to be informed and engaged in the way in which algorithms are used, optimizations set, and data collected and interpreted.

The City Is My Homescreen

Excellent essay by Dan Hill on mobiles, cities, strategic design, and the ways multiple disciplines of design (from interaction to urban planning, and including speculative) can work together. His main thesis here is that our focus on users results in products which might be great for the individual but bad for cities. I.e. Uber is useful and well designed for one user but the presence of hundreds more cars in city centres is bad for trafic and urban life. How can design be envisioned and practiced to bring the same kind of quality of experience while embedding the products or services more humanely and effectively in the fabric and systems of the city? The Oslo Bysykkel example is especially interesting to read through, and I love his definition of speculative design (highlighted below).

(Bonus points for mixing together Brand’s shearing layers, The Wire’s Bunk Moreland, and James Bridle.)

Unfortunately, although design practice has developed and stretched powerfully in order to help drive these technologies forwards, our core digital design disciplines, such as interaction design or service design, do not train us for these broader challenges. […]

Forcing that agenda will encourage designers using these contemporary and emerging technologies to break out beyond the bezels, to look up from pecking and pawing at those candy-coloured 180x180 icons and to engage with the reality of the context around them, and to see this as a rich, vibrant and endlessly inventive cultural and environmental terrain. […]

Making systems ‘seamful’, rather than seamless, in this way immediately asks more complex questions, provoking a more holistic approach to system design. Loading the homescreen into the city, metaphorically if not literally, requires us to engage with the impact of systems in terms of social fabric, of local cultural context, for example. How might such systems build trust rather than erode it? How might such systems knit together social fabric rather than shred it? These are design briefs to resolve. […]

Speculative design – sometimes design futures or design fiction – uses the processes and artefacts of design practice to address, uncover and articulate unknowns, often from a critical perspective. […]

Seeing design as forms of decision-making across these various aspects is where the real invention is required, the true design agenda. […]

“[T]he survival of the ordinary and the everyday; the survival of citizens over cities; of infrastructures of everyday dignity over big, signature, spectacular projects; of incremental change over instantaneous transformation; of the bazaar over the mall, the shared auto over the expressway” [Quoting Gautam Bahn]

Related: How design for individuals has impacts on the shared is also the frame for Jon Evans’ Privacy is a commons.